10/23 - Boys NPB Champioship Power Rankings

Cross country is one of the hardest sports to follow. Your runners compete at different courses, all at different times, recording different results. It's often very hard to compare these times together because of all of the variables and discrepancies. Sometimes you might wish that there was some sort of system in place where everyone could magically be compared without error, and that the runner's world was a little easier to understand. 

Well, a system like that doesn't exist, and will never exist. Ever.

Sorry.

And leading into the bigger races, this information becomes even more crucial to the success of a team looking to score well and move on to The Big Show.

So how is a kid supposed to know who they need to go after if they're not sure where their competition really lies?

The answer, my friends, is conjecture. That's right. Pure guesswork.

But who better to leave the guesswork to than seasoned cross-country experts Coach Heibell and Coach Leddy?

We've been working hard over the last week or so to bring you the first edition of our XC Power Rankings list, and we're very excited to share the results. We picked the Boys to start out with because at least one of our runners has a shot at making the Meet of Champions (according to our calculations).

However, you may find that Coach Heibell and I disagree on some points and to varying degrees. In fact, these lists are going to look a little different because we used different methods.

I don't know what recipe Coach Heibell used to conjure up his cockamamie list, but I can tell you that only science and reason was used in the making of my list. Therefore you should read into these lists with lots of caution. And don't trust them too much! We're just trying to have fun with our rankings -- remember, they don't affect the outcome of the race whatsoever.

But without further ado, here are our first XC Power Rankings lists!

Heibell's Harriers

1. John Spinelli - The top returner from the 2016 XC Group Meet. Proved himself as the cream of the Non-Public B distance crop last spring by being the only runner to challenge our friend Bill Massey in the State 3200 race, finishing 2nd to Billy by only 5 seconds with a 20 second gap to 3rd. Has already run solid at Holmdel this season in his 2 tries (16:25, 16:39) to go along with a 16:12 season best.
2. Jeremy Bronstein - The only real threat to Spinelli in my eyes. Has run 16:09 and 16:15 on flat courses thus far and has won 6 of 7 races this season, his only loss being a 3rd place finish at Shore Coaches (16:47). If he can stay with Spinelli going into the last 1k, his speed (1:58, 4:29) could propel him on the downhills and we could see Bronstein cross the line first.
3. Mike Cantaluppi - Rumors of his demise seem to be greatly exaggerated as he has clocked 16:57 at Greystone, 17:28 at Holmdel, and 17:22 at Warinanco (5150m) in the last few weeks. Ran 17:11 at the Group Meet in 2016.
4. Nick Wilson - These next 2 are the biggest wildcards in my eyes. MKA has only raced a handful of times this season, and he has run 16:24 on a flat course and 13:34 for 4k at VCP.  We know he has wheels (1:57, 4:20) but the question is can he handle hills over a full 5k.  Despite consistently being in the mid 16s during the 2016 season leading up to Groups, he ran 17:52 at Groups and 18:00 at the also very hilly Bowdoin Park. His 17:32 from 2016 Shore Coaches remains his Holmdel PB, but his 13:34 at Vanny last week (Katelyn Tuohy ran 13:21 for comparison) suggests he hasn't overcome his hill struggles yet and that his 2017 Championship season could end up a lot like his 2016 Championship season.  
5. Matt Petrocelli - Wilson's MKA teammate, take everything I said above and apply it here. Has run 16:26 flat course yet only 14:05 last week at VCP. His races on hilly courses in 2016: 18:38 Shore Coaches, 18:17 Groups, 18:40 Bowdoin. His spot at the #5 spot is largely based on the 16:26 and his 9:57 3200, but until he proves himself with some more races he is a candidate to move down the rankings. 4:42 1600 PR.
6. TJ Harkins - Starting here the rest of the field has yet to see anyone go sub-17, which leaves Harkins and his 17:00 at Randolph as the next man up. Sat out Shore Coaches due to sickness but his competitiveness, consistency (4 races between 17:00 and 17:24 on 4 different courses) and ability to step up when it counts leave Harkins firmly in the mix in the chase pack.
7. Joe Kinney - Has only run 4 races this season but they all have been solid. 17:02 at Greystone in addition to 17:20, 17:40, and 17:49 at Shore Coaches. He didn't run at Groups, or Holmdel for that matter, in 2016 and didn't compete in track, so he is a bit of an unknown and his lack of experience is the only red flag on his resume.  
8. Kevin Mulligan - This sophomore has turned in a splendid second season as he just ran 17:19 at Greystone last week and 17:44 at Shore Coaches, which represents a nice drop from his 2016 Holmdel best of 19:11. Has shown nice consistency on the season, having run no slower than 18:03 and every race in the mid 17's since late September.  
9. Fernando Aviles - This ranking is mostly based on the 17:38 he ran at the 2016 Group meet, but has had a solid 2017 campaign as well with 3 clocking's between 17:24 and 17:30. The biggest knock on Aviles is the 18:01 he ran at Shore Coaches, but in 2016 he ran 19:05 at Shore Coaches before running 17:38 at Groups and based on his current form there's no reason to think he can't make a comparable drop this season.
10. Addison Drone - He's been all over the map this year but his 17:18 at Greystone last week (he ran 18:49 at Greystone earlier this year for comparison) shows what he is capable of and that he is hitting his stride when it counts. The biggest concern for Mr. Drone has to be his history at Holmdel, where he ran 18:23 at Shore Coaches this year after running 18:05 and 18:17 in his 2 attempts at Holmdel in 2016.  

Editors Note: Mike Paustian, originally in the Top 10, had to be bumped out due to the uncertainty surrounding his ankle after a nasty incident during his long run this past weekend. If healthy, Paustian would be firmly in the mix of the chase pack given his 17:17 at Greystone and 17:16 at PVP to go along with his 17:43 at Holmdel from 2016. Inconsistency has been the biggest foe to Paustian this year, but the fact he ran his best race last year at Groups is encouraging for his prospects.  

Greg's Gofers

1. John Spinelli - The undisputed leader, Spinelli has the strongest pure distance background in Non-Public B. The only situation I can see him losing in is if he tries to sit and kick, where he could be snatched up by Wilson or Bronstein.
2. Nick Wilson - Not quite as strong in distance as Spinelli, but has the speed factor of a successful breakout track season when he ran 4:20 and 1:57. Although he may be the most well-rounded of the field, I have to give the edge to Spinelli here because of that strength factor.
3. Jeremy Bronstein - Bronstein has the fastest time in the field, currently sitting pretty with a 16:09 from Darlington Park. He also has a wildly impressive range, as he's run 52.87, 1:58, and 4:29. I haven't seen consistency from him, however, putting him lower on my list.
4. Mike Cantaluppi - Although Cantaluppi's best times are from last season, he is beginning to round back into shape with two sub-17 clockings and a 17:22 over-distance 5.15k race. He's a contender for an MOC qualifier, but is too far off the top 3 to be mentioned in the championship title conversation.
5. Matt Petrocelli - A bit of an underdog, Petrocelli is right behind his teammate Nick Wilson in terms of PRs, but there's not much else from him to speak of. He had a quiet track season, running respectable but modest times in the 4:40s for the 1600. However it seems that he's come into this season as a different runner than he was in track, and it's only a matter of standing up to the pressure if he wants to run well.
6. Joe Kinney - Koinonia's Joe Kinney doesn't race much, but a 17:02 at Greystone is worth a lot in my eyes. He's been all over the board in terms of consistency, but I can see Kinney pulling out the Q fairly easily.
7. Casey McKee - Although he hasn't run particularly fast in the 5K specifically, he too came away from the 5.15k distance with a decent 17:41 time, bringing him into my top 10 fold. Although he is somewhat of a wildcard, I'm willing to bet on an improvement over the next few weeks once he starts putting up 5K times on the board.
8. TJ Harkins - Our own TJ Harkins started the year off with a bang in 17:00 at Randolph, and has remained fairly consistent in the mid- to low-17 minute range. I'm not totally sold that he can mix it up with the bigger boys, but if he stays gutsy he can make it to MOC without a hitch.
9. Fernando Aviles - Aviles comes into the meet with a decently fast track background, having run 2:06 and 4:44. I expect a mid-17 run will sneak into the top 10, and Aviles is sitting right there on the edge of success with a 17:24. However, Aviles is not safe into the top 10 as he has two other contenders to worry about in Kevin Mulligan and Jack Farrell.
10. Kevin Mulligan - Mulligan is edged out by Aviles by the slimmest of margins, but he is also not far ahead of Jack Farrell... which is to say Jack Farrell is not far behind Kevin Mulligan. In my eyes, these three are essentially interchangeable: it depends on how the day pans out for each of them. Neither Mulligan nor Farrell have strong track presences, but Mulligan does have a stronger Holmdel season best than Farrell by quite a bit. That said, it's anyone's game in the back half of the Top 10 and it's up to the cross country gods to decide this one.